I see the Yankees completing the sweep with CC Sabathia on the mound who has a 2.93 ERA at home over the last 3 years along with a 2.95 ERA during day starts over that time and through 7 starts vs. the BlueJays he has a 2.45 ERA. Toronto has 225 AB vs. Sabathia and a .592 OPS with just 3 HR. Arenciba and Bautista are a combined 5-43 while the Blue Jays are 23rd in OPS vs. LHP. The Yankees bullpen has been excellent int his series as well and continues to be a strength of late.
Toronto will send R.A. Dickey to the mound who is suffering the Cy Young slump. His speed is down and his control is down walking 4 guys per 9 innings and hitters are becoming more and more patient against him. He's only getting 51% strike 1 calls compared to 62% last year and only 26.6% swings outside the zone compared to 34% last year. He also has a 8.66 ERA in 3 day starts this year and will face the Yankees who are 8th in OPS vs. RHP. Toronto's pitchign staff is also 26th with a 4.87 ERA during day games and the Jays are 17-37 in their last 54 as a dog - +150
Even at this price I see us getting value. Wade Miley comes off a rough start, but it was vs. the Braves a solid hitting team ranked 8th in OPS vs. LHP. Miley will face a Marlins team that's dreadful ranked 29th vs. LHP and at home they are hitting .165 scoring 1.17 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Miley has 2 career starts vs. the Marlins both coming last year he went 14.1 IP gave up 8 base runners total and no earned runs. He has a 1.78 ERA during 7 career day starts and he's on a full 5 days rest after only throwing 86 pitches. He's also backed by a bullpen that has a 2.82 ERA on the road and is super fresh only throwing 1 inning over the last 3 days combined. Miami is 16-35 in their last 51 games vs. a LH starter while the Diamondbacks are 20-6 in MIleys last 26 vs. a losing team.
The Marlins will send a veteran to the mound in Ricky Nolasco but in his last 4 starts vs. the Diamondbacks he's given up 19 ER in 21 innings while allowing 39 guys to reach base which is nearly 2 per inning. Montero, Prado and Ross are a combined 22-58 against Nolasco so plenty of success as the Diamondbacks are 9th with a .756 OPS vs. RHP and are scoring over 5 runs per 9 innings on the road vs. RHP. Arizona is also 7-2 during day games this year while Miami is 2-11 ranking 22nd with a 4.30 ERA
